Dec 22, 2006: CONGRESSIONAL APPORTIONMENT: PROJECTIONS BASED UPON THE 2005 STATE ESTIMATES

• Just as everyone else is preparing to leave town for the holiday break, the Bureau of the Census has released its annual state-level estimates of the resident population.
• This normally simple anaytical process now has a new element infused into it: what to do with Louisiana and how to account for the huge out-migration of the victims of Hurricane Katrina to other states.
• The Bureau does not undertake the relevant projections out to 2010 so the analyst is on their own. The Polidata projections try to account for this extraordinary situation by modifying the populations for both Louisiana and neighboring Texas. Nevertheless, these numbers probably still overestimate the population of Texas to some degree. Until such time as more information is available at lower levels of geography, these projections will provide some more depth to the 2010 apportionment results.
• Summary:
  • The biggest gainers are: Texas, up 4 to 36 seats*; Florida, up 2 to 27; and Arizona, up 2 to 10.
  • Other gainers are: Georgia, up 1 to 14; Utah, up 1 to 4; Nevada, up 1 to 4; and new to the list: Oregon, up 1 to 6 and Washington, up 1 to 10.
  • The losing states losing the most would be New York, down 2 to 27 and Ohio, down 2 to 16.
  • Other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Michigan, down 1 to 14; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8. New to the list of losers would be New Jersey, down 1 to 12; and Louisiana, down 1 to 6.
  • * see the note above about Texas.
• Find the complete press release and maps via the Polidata census portal.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

Nov 8, 2006: CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS: KERRY REPUBLICANS: AND THEN THERE WERE NONE

• An initial review of the preliminary results for the 2006 mid-term elections indicates a few interesting facts relating to the Presidential Results by Congressional Districts:
  • Overall, the number of seat changes in the U.S. House, based upon preliminary numbers, is at least -28 for the Republicans, with no incumbent Democrats losing, and 2 runoffs to follow in December in LA and TX.
  • The number of Kerry Republicans before the election was 18: based upon the election night numbers it is currently 8. (This assumes Simmons and Fitzpatrick stay behind, both currently designated as too close to call.)
  • Kerry Republicans losing include:
    1. CO-7 at 48.2% Bush; Beauprez Open won by Perlmutter;
    2. CT-2 at 44.2% Bush; Rob Simmons won by Courtney (TCTC);
    3. CT-5 at 49.0% Bush; Nancy Johnson won by Murphy;
    4. FL-22 at 47.5% Bush; Clay Shaw won by Klein;
    5. IA-1 at 46.4% Bush; Nussle Open won by Braley;
    6. IA-2 at 43.8% Bush; Jim Leach won by Loesback;
    7. KY-3 at 49.0% Bush; Anne Northrup won by Yarmuth;
    8. NH-2 at 47.0% Bush; Charlie Bass won by Hodes;
    9. PA-7 at 46.9% Bush; Curt Weldon won by Sestak;
    10. PA-8 at 48.0% Bush; Mike Fitzpatrick won by Murphy (TCTC);
  • Kerry Republicans winning reelection:
    1. CT-4 at 46.3% Bush; Christopher Shays;
    2. DE-A.L. at 45.8% Bush; Mike Castle;
    3. IL-10 at 47.2% Bush; Mark Kirk;
    4. NM-1 at 47.8% Bush; Heather Wilson (TCTC);
    5. NY-25 at 47.8% Bush; Jim Walsh;
    6. PA-6 at 48.2% Bush; Jim Gerlach (reported inconsistently);
    7. PA-15 at 49.6% Bush; Charlie Dent;
    8. WA-8 at 48.1% Bush; Dave Reichert (TCTC...only 31% in)
  • Early reports indicated that there were only two incumbent Democrats to lose reelection, both of whom were in Georgia, and both challenged by former members:
    1. GA-8 at 60.9% Bush (est.); Marhshall vs. Mac Collins
    2. GA-12 at 50.4% Bush (est.); Barrows vs. Max Burns
    3. Later numbers appear to have both Democrats retaining their seats (though GA-12 is TCTC, GA-8 is actually closer).
• Other Republican defeats: There were several other Republican seats that switched party by virtue of the election; these were basically of three types of seats: personal factors of scandal and/or celebrity; low generic Bush strength; and other factors:
  1. AZ-5 at 54.1% Bush; Hayworth won by Mitchell;
  2. AZ-8 at 52.9% Bush; Kolbe Open won by Giffords;
  3. CA-11 at 53.9% Bush; Pombo won by McNerney;
  4. FL-16 at 54.0% Bush; Foley Open won by Mahoney;
  5. IN-2 at 56.0% Bush; Chocola won by Donnelly;
  6. IN-8 at 61.5% Bush; Hostetler won by Ellsworth;
  7. IN-9 at 59.0% Bush; Sodrel won by Hill (reprise);
  8. KS-2 at 59% Bush; Ryun won by Boyda;
  9. MN-1 at 51.1% Bush; Gutknecht won by Walz;
  10. NH-1 at 50.8% Bush; Bradley won by Shea-Porter;
  11. NC-11 at 57.0% Bush; Taylor won by Shuler;
  12. NY-19 at 53.9% Bush; Kelly won by Hall;
  13. NY-20 at 53.5% Bush; Sweeney won by Gillibrand;
  14. NY-24 at 52.6% Bush; Boehlert Open won by Arcuri;
  15. OH-18 at 57% Bush; Ney Open won by Space;
  16. PA-4 at 54.5% Bush; Hart won by Altmire;
  17. PA-10 at 60.0% Bush; Sherwood won by Carney;
  18. TX-22 at 64.4% Bush; DeLay Open won by Lampson;
  19. WI-8 at 55.0% Bush; Green Open won by Kagen
• A few close races include:
  1. CT-2 Simmons (R incumbent) behind by 170 votes with 100% in;
  2. NC-8 Hayes (R incumbent) ahead by 460 votes with 100% in;
  3. WA-8 Reichert (R incumbent) ahead by 2,653 with only 31% in (severe weather Nov. 7);
  4. WY-A.L. Cubin (R incumbent) ahead by 970 votes with 100% in;
• To be determined in runoffs:
  1. LA-2 Jefferson (D incumbent) ahead in open primary with runoff to follow;
  2. TX-23 Bonilla (R incumbent) ahead with 48% of the vote in a special election with runoff to follow
• POLIDATA Home Page.

Sep 7, 2006: MAJORITY WATCH, Polling in 30 Close Congressional Races for the 2006 General Election

• Polidata has assisted Riehle-Tarrance Strategies in the data development for their ongoing polling in selected close congressional districts.
• Riehle-Tarrance Strategies is a bipartisan public affairs opinion research and polling organization.
• The first round of information is out and can be found at the Constituent Dynamics website.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

Sep 6, 2006: PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, Update for the 110th Congress

• Two states, Georgia and Texas, will conduct the 2006 congressional elections under new lines. In Georgia, all districts changed; in Texas, only 5 districts were changed.
• From the perspective of the Presidential Results, there were few large changes in either plan.
• You can find out more about the changes here: Notes on the Recalculation of Presidential Results by Congressional Districts (revised Sep. 19, 2006).
• Find the maps here for the recalculated 2004 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts of the 110th Congress
• For previous buyers of the full dataset, an update is available for GA and TX. Click here to email an inquiry for the updated file.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

Jun 26, 2006: VERMONT CAMPAIGN FINANCE CASE: Supreme Court Opinion cites Polidata Study

• Polidata principal consultant, Clark Bensen, was cited in today's opinion of the U.S. Supreme Court relating to the campaign finance law adopted by the Vermont General Assembly in 1997. Bensen testified as an expert witness at the trial, held in Burlington during the spring of 2000.
• The Polidata report, which summarized the campaign finance reports for all legislative races in the state, focused on the degree to which funds raised by legislative candidates would have evaporated under the new campaign finance scheme. Bensen also testified that the appropriate analysis was to focus on the campaigns that really mattered, i.e., contested races, rather than merely calculating an average for all races. Both of these points were cited by the court in the court's opinion written by Justice Breyer as the primary factor for overturning the contribution limits of the campaign finance law.
• Bensen also testifed about how the campaign finance law would make the role of the political parties almost non-existent due to the limits in the law (characterized as "laughably low" in the dissenting opinion of Judge Winter in the court below). Justice Breyer's opinion treated this as the second factor for overturning the law's limits on contributions.
• This was one of the long-awaited opinions from the new Roberts Court. The case was up for oral argument on February 28, the day before that of the Texas redistricting case, March 1, 2006.
• Justice Breyer's opinion was joined by the Chief Justice and Justice Alito. Justice Kennedy concurred in a separate opinion. Justice Thomas was joined by Justice Scalia in a concurring opinion thus making it a 6-3 outcome to declare the major portions of the law unconstitutional under the First Amendment.
• The slip opinion for Randall v. Sorrell may be found on the Polidata site at this link.
• If you have any questions, please send an email to info@polidata.org for inquiries.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

May 26, 2006: PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, Final Review and Color Map Supplement

• At long last, the Final Review of the Presidential Results by Congressional Districts volume is now available. There are two printed volumes available: 1) the Final Review is a summary that includes thematic maps of districts for the nation and for each state; and 2) the Color Map Supplement which is just an extract of the maps in full color.
• The Final Review: this 580 page summary includes national maps and rankings on a variety of factors for both the Presidential and the Congressional elections as well as 50 State Mini-Reports with separate district-level maps for each election as well. For more information on the FINAL REVIEW, click here. This volume is bound in a permanent library binding, please allow 2-3 weeks for turnaround.
• The Color Map Supplement: this 200 page extract of all the national and state thematic maps is in full color. (All maps use the new Red for Republican, Blue for Democrat color scheme). This volume is bound in a comb/coil binding that allows for table-flat reference. For more information on the COLOR MAP SUPPLEMENT, click here. This volume is ordered directly from lulu.com.
• If you have any questions, please send an email to info@polidata.org for inquiries.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

May 25, 2006: DEMOGRAPHIC GUIDE TO THE UNITED STATES; Districts of the 108th Congress, 2000 Census Edition.

• At long last, the Demographic Guide to Congressional Districts volume is now available.
• The volume is a companion to both the DEMOGRAPHIC GUIDE TO THE UNITED STATES, States and Counties, as well as the DEMOGRAPHIC GUIDES for each state that summarize county subdivisions and places.
• The two main sections are 1) a national overview with rankings and a thematic map for many dozens of demographic variables; and 2) one-page Area Profiles for each of the 435 districts.
• Also included is an Appendix which contains full-page base maps and a county-to-district cross-reference.
• This volume summarizes the districts of the 108th Congress, for members elected in 2002. Some supplemental information is included for the states that changed for 2004 (ME, PA and TX) in the form of Area Profiles.
• For more information on this and other NATIONAL VOLUMES, click here. This volume is bound in a permanent library binding, please allow 2-3 weeks for turnaround.
• If you have any questions, please send an email to info@polidata.org for inquiries.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

May 24, 2006: DEMOGRAPHIC DATASETS FOR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, 2000 Census Edition.

• Datasets with selected demographic and political variables are now available.
• The datasets are available for the districts of both the 108th (2003-2004) and the 109th (2005-2006) Congresses. They are similar in format to those including the Presidential Results by Congressional Districts except they include only a summary of the presidential vote to accompany the selected demographic items.
• For more information on this and other DEMOGRAPHIC DATASET, click here.
• If you have any questions, please send an email to info@polidata.org for inquiries.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

Mar 24, 2006: SERVER PROBLEMS

• Much of the Polidata content is available on the polidata.us server. Alas, this server was the victim of a successful intrusion. With security compromised, the entire server is being rebuilt to avoid any potential file corruption. Until such time it has been powered down and security issues are being addressed.
• Much of the free information is being moved to polidata.org but you will still find links, or references to polidata.us: this includes email accounts, which will be inoperable for now. If you find any problems please use the info@polidata.org account for inquiries.
• Our apologies for this inconvenience.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

Mar 22, 2006: RED VS. BLUE

• Our apoplexy over the conversion of 40,000 pages of election information to the new Red for Republican, Blue for Democrat color scheme continues.
• Reports are being regenerated for the online free report information reflecting the new color scheme. You will notice a slight difference in the hues to help identify the reports which have been retrofitted.
• The new red is more of a DARK RED for Republican and the new blue is LIGHT BLUE for Democrat. You can view an example at the bottom of any state page: e.g., the Alabama Polidata page.
• The new color scheme is reflected in the reports for
  1. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY DISTRICT
  2. CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION RESULTS BY DISTRICT
  3. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY COUNTY
  4. The state-level reports (STATEWIDE ELECTION HISTORY) will be ready in the next few months.
• POLIDATA Home Page.

Dec 22, 2005: APPORTIONMENT FOR 2010, BASED UPON 2005 ESTIMATES

• The Bureau of the Census released annual state-level estimates for states as of July 1, 2005. These have been projected by POLIDATA to 2010 for a preliminary look at a possible shift of seats based upon the 2010 census. These projections are based merely upon a simple 2-year average of the growth rate determined by the estimates from the Bureau. (Right now these numbers are based upon the revisions for 2004 and the estimates for 2005, revisions to the estimates for 2003 still need to be made.) Based upon these (pre-Katrina) projections:
  • the biggest GAINERS are: Florida, up 3 to 28; and Texas, up 3 to 35 seats.
    • based upon these numbers, a new big gainer would be Arizona, up 2 to 10 seats.
    • The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.
  • the biggest LOSERS are: New York, down 2 to 27; and Ohio, down 2 to 16.
    • the other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Michigan, down 1 to 14, ; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; and Missouri, down 1 to 8.
  • A few notes:
    1. close calls: seat number 435 would go to Louisiana, about 2,500 folks to spare; seat 436 would be Minnesota, about 2,500 folks short.
    2. close calls: these numbers are pre-Katrina and even with the New Orleans reconstruction, Louisiana's best case scenario appears to be staying at 7 seats; it is more likely to drop 1 seat to 6. Katrina is likely not to have any effect on Alabama or Mississippi but it may bolster the Texas situation. By these July 1, 2005 estimates, TX is slightly behind in "gaining" its 2nd seat in 2005 by about 40,000 persons, losing to Arizona.
    3. close calls: this would be the first time California would not be gaining any seat in an apportionment since 1850!; even a one seat gain would be quite low for a California pickup. Aside from 2000, the last time the state only gained one seat was in 1910, when it went from 7 to 8 seats. Nevertheless, given the large California population, it is still too close to call.
  • A few caveats:
    • These numbers are based upon the July 1 annual estimates; any apportionment would be based upon the April 1 census date.
    • These numbers do not reflect any count of overseas personnel; overseas numbers were added to the apportionment counts in 1990 and 2000.
  • See the full press release and maps at the census portal.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Dec 6, 2005 IMPACT OF CITIZEN APPORTIONMENT

  • POLIDATA principal consultant, Clark Bensen, delivered comments before the House Government Reform Committee's Subcommittee on Technology, Information Policy, Intergovernmental Relations and the Census on September 14 on Capitol Hill. The full committee Chair: Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA). The subcommittee Chair: Mike Turner (R-OH).
  • Committee website: House Government Reform Committee
  • Find the paper here: The Impact of Citizen Apportionment.
  • Related comments: See the 2010 Projections below.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Jul 27, 2005: PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, FINAL DATASET NOW AVAILABLE

  • The district-level election dataset is now available.
  • See the PRCD Project page for options.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  May 01, 2005: APPORTIONMENT FOR 2030, BUREAU PROJECTIONS

  • The Bureau of the Census recently released state-level projections for the period of 2005 to 2030.
  • An update to the Jan 2005 calculation of the 2010 apportionment for the U.S. House has been made (see next news item.)
  • A few highlights for the 2030 projections:
    • Top five states: CA at 55; TX at 40; FL at 34; NY at 23; and IL at 16.
    • Number of states gaining over 2000: 11.
    • Number of states losing over 2000: 18
    • Number of states with no change over 2000: 21.
    • Number of states with fewer persons than in 2000: 2 (WV: 2 seats & ND: 1 A.L., plus DC).
    • Number of states with more than double the persons of 2000: 2 (AZ: 13 seats and NV: 5 seats).
    • Number of At-Large States: 8 (RI added).
    • Number of states with 5 or fewer members: 24.
    • Number of states with 10 or more members: 14.
    • Average members per state: 8.7.
  • Remember, these are just projections, decades out.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Apr 30, 2005: APPORTIONMENT FOR 2010, AN UPDATE FROM BUREAU PROJECTIONS

  • The Bureau of the Census recently released state-level projections for the period of 2005 to 2030.
  • An update to the Jan 2005 calculation of the 2010 apportionment for the U.S. House (click here for the earlier release) has been made.
  • Rerunning the apportionment for 2010 based upon these numbers produced only a few changes from our January report.
  • Four states were affected, all four of which were near the cutoff point of 435.
  • Changes between the Polidata projections and the Bureau projections are:
    • Alabama: Polidata: AL stays at 7; Bureau: AL loses 1 seats to 6. (Polidata: AL ranked at 433 for 7; Bureau: AL ranked at 436, just barely losing.)
    • Florida: Polidata: FL gains 3 to 28; Bureau: FL gains 2 to 27. (Polidata: FL ranked at 434 for 28; Bureau: FL ranked at 440 for 28.)
    • Michigan: Polidata: Michigan loses 1 to 14; Bureau: MI stays at 15. (Polidata: MI ranked at 438 for 15; Bureau: MI ranked at 430 for 15.)
    • Minnesota: Polidata: Minnesota loses 1 to 7; Bureau: MN stays at 8. (Polidata: MN ranked at 437 for 8; Bureau: MN ranked at 427 for 8.)
  • Remember, these are just projections, based upon a July date, and without regard to any overseas population.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Mar 30, 2005: OUR CONTENT WEBSERVER CRASHED OVERNIGHT, WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF RECONSTRUCTION
  LINKS TO POLIDATA.ORG WILL WORK BUT LINKS TO POLIDATA.US MAY NOT
  UPDATE: 4 APR 2005: Most links should be back online for polidata.us but a few do remain broken/missing.

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  Mar 26, 2005: 2004 ELECTORAL VOTE BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, Preliminary Summary

  • With the release yesterday of the preliminary count for the 2004 Presidential Results by Congressional District herewith is a brief update on the Electoral Vote by Congressional District.
  • Based upon the 2004 Electoral College vote, Bush received 286 votes. Under a uniform application of the proposed Electoral College by Congressional District method, the Bush/Cheny ticket would have received 317 votes (255 for each CD plus 2 for each of the 31 states.)
  • The numbers for Kerry/Edwards were 252 in December (ignoring the MN Edwards voter and adding 1 for DC) and 221 by this method.
  • Thus, under the electoral college vote, Bush received 53.2% of the vote. Under the proposed method he would have received 58.9% of the vote, a net difference of 5.7 points or an 11% gain.
  • Therefore, for the second time in a row, this method would not improve the differential between the popular vote and the electoral vote.
  • Related comments: Reform of the Electoral College, Electoral Vote by Congressional District.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Mar 25, 2005: 2004 PRESIDENT BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, Preliminary Summary

  • We have completed the first phase of the review of the results for the Presidential election for the districts of the 109th Congress.
  • A summary may be found at the PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS page.
  • These are preliminary numbers based upon a collection of information from state and local authorities.
  • Update (4/6/2005). The Press Release indicates the top five Kerry Republican districts. A slight modification in the votes has moved Kirk, at 53%, (IL-10) into the top five replacing Shaw, at 52%, (FL-22).
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Mar 10, 2005: 2004 PRESIDENT BY COUNTY, ONLINE LOOKUP

  • There is now a new way to easily look up any state or county for the results of the 2004 Presidential Election.
  • One the home page, in the third column, find "online lookup for 2004".
  • In keeping with our attempt to provide information for both color schemes, there is a choice:
  • Red for Republican or Blue for Republican.
  • Information on the book can be located here:
  • PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004, STATES AND COUNTIES.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Feb 20, 2005: 2004 PRESIDENT BY COUNTY, THE RED BOOK

  • We have managed to update our Polidata ® Election Reports with a new national volume.
  • PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004, STATES AND COUNTIES is now available.
  • This volume summarizes the official data for all states and all counties and provides a national overview and local detail.
  • Part 1 includes dozens of state-level thematic maps and rankings for multiple election factors.
  • Part 2 includes a group of county-level thematic maps and rankings for multiple election factors.
  • Part 3 includes a 4-page Mini-Report for each state providing an easy comparison with 2000.
  • Part 4 includes the county detail for all counties for both 2004 and 2000.
  • As with all Polidata ® Demographic and Political Guides, the book is available online in color.
  • A note on the color in this volume: We have reluctantly converted to the new standard of Red for Republican and Blue for Democrat.
  • The purchase price ($130.00) includes a free two-year subscription.
  • The volume may be purchased online via PayPal by using your account or a credit card. (S/H for PayPal orders is $8.)
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Feb 19, 2005: 2004 PRESIDENT BY COUNTY, CHANGES OVER UNOFFICIAL DATA (IL REVISION)

  • Sometime between Jan. 1, 2005 and Feb. 19, 2005, ILLINOIS revised the official returns for President by County.
  • The change only affected three counties, though sizeable ones, (Kane, Kendall and Will) and only by a few hundred votes for each candidate.
  • The end result was a reduction for both Bush (-662) and Kerry (-439).
  • In addition, we have tried to reconcile all the state reports with our dataset numbers and the FEC vote report.
  • As below, our dataset includes the correction in MS (+12,321 votes for Bush) while the FEC report does not.
  • The FEC report includes several thousand write-in votes for Nader that we do not.
  • We exclude them either because they are not on the state's website or they are not available by county.
  • You may find a state-by-state listing of the final votes for the 2004 Presidential Election at the pages for our new Presidential volume (see above).
  • PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004, STATES AND COUNTIES contains the state listing as a sample page.
  • A comparison of our overall national vote totals compared to the FEC report can be found here.
  • Note that our state and county datasets generally only reflect write-ins that are substantial and/or available at the county level.
  • See Feb 14, 2005 for online purchase.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Feb 15, 2005: 2004 PRESIDENT BY COUNTY, CHANGES OVER UNOFFICIAL DATA (MS CORRECTION)

  • An error has been found in the official returns from the state of MISSISSIPPI. It affects the Bush numbers only.
  • Unofficial election-night returns indicated a Bush vote of 13,690. The official certified totals indicated only 1,369.
  • The totals of the precinct (beats) in Lowndes County indicate the election-night returns were correct.
  • This affects the Bush vote for MS and the Nation by adding 12,321 votes.
  • New totals are: MS: 684,991; US: 62,041,268
  • New breaks by county are:

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  • Break in 2004:
    • Bush: 2,530 (81.2%)
    • Kerry: 583 (18.8%)
  • This correction, though unofficial, will be made in our county-level election datasets (see below).
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Feb 15, 2005: 2004 PRESIDENT BY COUNTY, CHANGES OVER UNOFFICIAL DATA

  • Now that we have a county-level dataset based upon official returns from all state authorities some analysis can begin.
  • Remarkably, there were only 8 counties in which the winner identified on election night was not the winner when the official returns were in.
  • Of course, the numbers of votes, and the percentages by county, varied greatly, depending upon the state. For example, many election night vote tallies in states in the West were significantly lower than the final ones.
  • The net result in these changes of "Win Status" was -3 counties for Bush and +4 for Kerry. Bush won up 2 more counties and Kerry won 4 more.
  • One county went from an election night Tie to a Kerry win (by 7 votes). Kerry picked up a county in Nebraska, his only win there (by 58 votes).
  • Without Alaska, which has no counties, and with DC, the number of county equivalents is 3,113. This includes dropping Clifton Forge in VA and gaining Broomfield in CO.

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  • Break in 2004:
    • Bush: 2,530 (81.2%)
    • Kerry: 583 (18.8%)
  • Break in 2000:
    • Bush: 2,439 (78.3%)
    • Gore: 674 (21.7%)
  • Net over 2000
    • Bush: a net gain of 91 counties over Bush 2000
    • Kerry: a net loss of 91 counties over Gore 2000
  • Note, however, that a total of 224 counties changed winners.

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  • Maps used on our CafePress products are now updated for the final numbers.
  • Find them here: Election Maps Wall Calendar, Coffee Mugs, etc. at cafepress.com/polidata.
  • Note that Broomfield, CO, a new county that voted for Bush in 2004, may not appear on some maps and may be excluded from counts on some maps. (UPDATE: Broomfield Co has been added to the 2004 Presidential maps and the count in this section.)
  • Also, in Hawaii, all four counties voted for Kerry in 2004 and Gore in 2000. It also does not appear on some maps and is excluded from those counts.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Feb 14, 2005: 2004 PRESIDENT BY COUNTY, OFFICIAL RESULTS, DATASET NOW AVAILABLE

  • A dataset is now available containing the official results for the 2004 Presidential Election for all counties and counties equivalents.
    • The dataset is hierarchical and contains one record for each county as well as one record for each state and one record for the national totals.
    • Votes for the following candidates, when available, are included separately: Kerry, Bush, Nader, Badnarik, Peroutka, Cobb. Miscellaneous other candidates are combined into one column.
    • Percentages of all votes are calculated for Kerry and Bush and "others" combined.
    • The only votes not included in the dataset are 422 miscellaneous write-ins in 9 states.
    • The dataset includes the 2000 total poulation and the 2000 voting age population. It does not include any voter registration, turnout or other demographic information.
    • The comparable summary information for 2000 is included for county units for which votes were reported in 2004.
    • Alaska does not have any counties and the only record will be a state-level one.
    • D.C. is included as both a state and a county.
    • County equivalents include parishes in LA and independent cities in several states (MD, VA, MO and NV).
    • County results are included for all states (except AK), including the difficult to process ones in New England.
  • The .zip file contains the following formats for the dataset: .sdf, .csv, and .dbf.
    • .sdf for System Default Format: a flat ASCII format (a .sps DATA LISTING is included.)
    • .csv for Comma Separated Values: an ASCII file with commas delimiting fields.
    • .dbf for DBase/FoxPro 2.0: a database with field names which can be opened in Microsoft Excel as well.
  • The cost of the President by County Dataset is $95.00 and can be obtained via Paypal by clicking the logo below. (A $5 processing charge applies to Paypal orders.)
  • Vote Summary by Candidate:
    • Bush: 62,028,947 (50.7%)
    • Kerry: 59,028,548 (48.3%)
    • Nader: 457,851
    • Badnarik: 396,869
    • Peroutka: 142,792
    • Cobb: 119,358
    • Others: 99,247
    • Total: 122,273,612
    • (The total is 122,274,034 including the 422 votes not in the dataset.)
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Jan 12, 2005: WASHINGTON STATE GOVERNOR'S RACE, GREGOIRE SWORN IN

  • While the Republicans are in court contesting the election, Democrat Christine Gregoire was sworn in as Governor.
  • Republican Rossi won the initial count by 261 votes, won the second count by 42 votes, but lost the third count to Democrat Gregoire by 129 votes.
  • The legal challenge focuses on the perceived irregularities in King County (Seattle), the state's largest county that generally supports Democrats and found new ballots several times during the two recount processes.
  • The latest problems revolve around King County's provision of a list of voter history that means 2,400 ballots were cast for which no voter can be identified, let alone, some 348 provisional ballots that were run through the machines anyway.
  • In order to reflect the new official status, changes have been made in:
    • The Party Control page.
    • The Party Control maps.
    • The Election Maps Wall Calendar, Coffee Mugs, etc. at cafepress.com/polidata.
  • Stay tuned for the result of the court challenge.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Jan 10, 2005: APPORTIONMENT FOR 2010, BASED UPON 2004 ESTIMATES

  • The Bureau of the Census released annual state-level estimates for states as of July 1, 2004. These have been projected by POLIDATA to 2010 for a preliminary look at a possible shift of seats based upon the 2010 census. Based upon these projections:
    • the biggest gainers are: Florida, up 3 to 28; and Texas, up 3 to 35 seats. The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; Arizona, up 1 to 9; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.
    • The biggest losers are: New York, down 2 to 27; and Ohio, down 2 to 16. The other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8; and Michigan, down 1 to 14.
  • See the full press release and maps at the census portal.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Jan 4, 2005: POST-ELECTION PARTY CONTROL CHANGES

  • Several changes occurred over the holiday break.
    • Congress: The death of Cong. Robert Matsui (D-CA 5) results in a vacancy in the U.S. House. This does not affect control of the state delegation. The overall count for the 109th House will thus be 232 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent and 1 vacancy. A special election will be held in this district in March 2005. (The district voted 63% for Gore in the 2000 Presidential election.) [No change in maps.]
    • Congress: Also, two runoffs in Louisiana were held in December, the parties split with one win each. [Maps have been changed.]
    • Governors: The third count of the votes in Washington state has resulted in a certification of Democrat Christine Gregoire as the new winner by 129 votes. Republican Dino Rossi has been declared Governor-elect after the second count by 42 votes and also led after the first count. The status of this race is still undecided with a contest/challenge by the Republicans likely. [For the moment, no change in maps. We will monitor the situation every week.]
    • State Legislatures: The contest in the Montana House has been decided in favor of the Democrat. The post-election breakdown has been 49 Dems, 50 Reps, and 1 independent. The new breakdown (literally) is a 50-50 tie. [Maps are being changed for this.]
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Jan 2, 2005: PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, BUSH V. GORE FOR THE 108TH CONGRESS

  • The death of Congressman Matsui (D-CA) raises the question of the Presidential vote for his district, among others. His Sacramento district was 63.3 to 36.7 for Gore in 2000, 13 points above the national average for Gore.
  • The compilation of the 2004 Bush v. Kerry vote for the 109th Congress continues but results will likely not be available for several months. This project following the 2000 election took until March 2001 to complete.
  • Why is this the case? Basically, because only a handful of states compile their presidential numbers in this fashion. For the vast majority of districts, precinct-level election results are collected from state and local election officials for the 450+ counties which contain a portion of more than one district.
  • You can read more about this year's project at the Presidential Results by Congressional District Project Page.
  • For now, here are the members of the 108th congress in the 'turnover districts', i.e., those whose district vote for President was other than their own party label:
  • BUSH DEMOCRATS (36):
  • AL- 5 Cramer (D); AR- 2 Snyder (D); FL- 2 Boyd (D); GA- 2 Bishop (D); GA- 3 Marshall (D); IN- 9 Hill (D); KS- 3 Moore (D); KY- 4 Lucas (D); LA- 5 Alexander (D); LA- 7 John (D); MI- 1 Stupak (D); MN- 7 Peterson (D); MS- 4 Taylor (D); MO- 4 Skelton (D); NC- 2 Etheridge (D); NC- 7 McIntyre (D); ND-99 Pomeroy (D); OH- 6 Strickland (D); OK- 2 Carson (D); OR- 4 Defazio (D); OR- 5 Hooley (D); PA-17 Holden (D); NC-13 Miller (D); SC- 5 Spratt (D); TN- 4 Davis (D); TN- 6 Gordon (D); TX- 1 Sandlin (D); TX- 2 Turner (D); TX- 4 Hall (D); TX- 9 Lampson (D); TX-11 Edwards (D); TX-17 Stenholm (D); UT- 2 Matheson (D); VA- 9 Boucher (D); WA- 3 Baird (D); WV- 1 Mollohan (D)
  • GORE REPUBLICANS (27):
  • CT- 2 Simmons (R); CT- 4 Shays (R); CT- 5 Johnson (R); DE-99 Castle (R); FL-10 Young (R); FL-22 Shaw (R); IL-10 Kirk (R); IA- 1 Nussle (R); IA- 2 Leach (R); KY- 3 Northup (R); CO- 7 Beauprez (R); NH- 2 Bass (R); NJ- 2 Lobiondo (R); NJ- 3 Saxton (R); NJ- 4 Smith (R); NM- 1 Wilson (R); NY- 3 King (R); NY-13 Fossella (R); NY-25 Walsh (R); NY-27 Quinn (R); GA-12 Burns (R); NV- 3 Porter (R); PA- 6 Gerlach (R); PA- 7 Weldon (R); PA- 8 Greenwood (R); PA-15 Toomey (R); WA- 8 Dunn (R)
  • The overall count for the 108th Congress based upon the 2000 Bush v. Gore vote was: Bush 238 (202 Republicans and 36 Democrats), Gore 197 (169 Democrats, 27 Republicans and 1 Ind-Sanders from Vt).
  • Even this calculation results in a drop of the turnover districts about 25% (from 86 to 63) over the 2000 numbers for the 107th congress elected in 2000. At that point the number was Bush 228 (188 Republicans, 40 Democrats) Gore 207 (160 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 1 Ind-Sanders from VT).
  • Related comments: Reform of the Electoral College, Electoral Vote by Congressional District.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Dec 15, 2004: 2004 ELECTION: LA TIMES ARTICLE: GOP HAS LOCK ON SOUTH AND DEMOCRATS CANT FIND KEY, by Ron Brownstein

  • The article about the GOP Lock on the South by Ron Brownstein can be found at the LA Times site.
  • A map of the counties in the South, comparing the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote with the 1996 Dole/Clinton vote can be found on our site.
  • A map of the all counties, comparing the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote with the 1996 Dole/Clinton vote can be found on our site.
  • The maps can be purchased via the POLIDATA CafePress storefront.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Dec 10, 2004: ARTICLE IN EXTENSIONS, A PUBLICATION OF THE CARL ALBERT CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA

  • The article, by Polidata principal consultant Clark Bensen, entitled "Substantial Political Consequences, A Practitioner's Perspective on Redistricting" summarizes some of the practical aspects of drafting redistricting plans for congressional delegations and legislative chambers.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 13, 2004: 2004 ELECTION: GREETING CARDS, COFFEE MUGS, MAPS AND MOUSEPADS AT CAFEPRESS.COM

  • You can now order post-election or pre-holiday items for that political junkie on your list. Just visit the polidata storefront at cafepress.com.
  • There are several different versions of 2004 Election Maps. When the Washington Governor's race is finalized (see below), we will add Governor's and Legislative maps as well.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 12, 2004: 2004 ELECTION: EXIT POLLS MAPS

  • A first look at the ideological break for voters from the 76,000+ voters interviewed on Nov. 2 yields the following statistics:
    • The overall national break was 21% Liberal, 45% Moderate and 34% Conservative.
    • The percentage of Liberals voting for Kerry (85%) was about equal to the percentage of Conservatives voting for Bush (84%).
    • The moderates split 45% for Bush and 54% for Kerry but there was a clear regional difference in the Moderate vote.
  • State-level maps can be viewed for:
    • Liberals. Most liberal: DC, MA, VT, HI and RI.
    • Conservatives. Most Conservative: TN, MS, UT, TX and AL.
    • Moderates. Most Moderate: CT, WI, WV, NH and MD.
    • Moderate Vote. Moderates in the Eastern, Midwestern and West Coast states tended to vote for Kerry. Moderates in the Mountatin West states tended to vote for Kerry. Moderates in the Southern states were mixed. However, Kerry still won the Moderate Vote in all regions and 54% of all Moderates nationwide.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 11, 2004: 2004 ELECTION: WASHINGTON GOVERNOR STILL UNDECIDED?

  • The latest results from the weeklong counting process has Republican Dino Rossi ahead of Demorcrat Christine Gregoire by 3,500 votes.
  • The lead has changed several times in the past week, with Rossi initially ahead but with Gregoire ahead by as much as 9,000 votes by week's end.
  • We will wait a few more days until we update/revise our maps but they would need to be updated.
  • UPDATE 12 NOV: Rossi continues to lead, by about 3,600 votes. However a substantial number of ballots (80,000) are left to be counted and the lawyers are scoping out court options. Looks like it might be a while still. The Polidata maps still have it listed as a Dem seat.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 9, 2004: PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY COUNTY ONLINE

  • County-level election results from the election night 2004 media coverage have been converted into a database format. Reports have been generated and maps have been prepared in two color schemes-BLUE for GOP and RED for GOP.
  • Link to the 2004 Election Night Page for these county reports and county maps for 2004 President Bush v. Kerry.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 8, 2004: PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS ONLINE

  • Over the years POLIDATA has worked with both NATIONAL JOURNAL, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT and CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY to compile estimates of the Presidential elections by Congressional District.
  • In most states these numbers are not compiled officially and must be aggregated from precinct-level election results. There are numerous problems, including absentee and early votes, so in many cases the estimated numbers are just that, an estimate of the base political strength for a district. There are no firm or official numbers for some districts.
  • These numbers form the basis for most district-level election analysis and are included in the biennial almanacs: THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS (AAP) or POLITICS IN AMERICA (PIA). However, only the AAP now provides complete election data for each district.
  • In order to facilitate the historical record for these data, listings are being included on this site. Files in .pdf format detailing the Presidential Results by Congressional Districts for 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2002 may be found on the STATE BOOK pages that provide the links to the DEMOGRAPHIC GUIDE & ELECTION HISTORY volumes.
  • Several nationwide maps are now available on the Election Maps page.
  • Also, district-level datasets are also available for purchase. Send an email to inquire about the datasets.
  • The 2004 Presidential by CD project is underway with results expected in late Winter or early Spring.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 6, 2004: ELECTION MAPS

  • In order to serve those preferring
    • the traditional BLUE FOR REPUBLICAN as well as
    • the new media choice of RED FOR REPUBLICAN,
  • several State and County Election Maps are now available for review and purchase.
  • also, several State Party Control Maps are now available for review and purchase.
  • This scheme will be implemented for additional high-level (State, County and Congressional District) maps as time allows.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 5, 2004: 2004 ELECTION RESULTS

  • There is still some question in the following races:
    • Washington Governor: absentee ballots are still being counted. As of Saturday, Nov. 6, Gregoire (D) is still ahead, 50.0 to 49.8. For updates see AP/NY Times updates.
    • Montana House: The results are apparently 50R, 49D with 1 Independent and a recount outstanding.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 4, 2004: 2004 ELECTION RESULTS

  • Several party control maps and tables are now available, all based upon preliminary data.
  • PRESIDENT: The Electoral College Map assumes that BUSH wins IA, NM.
  • LEGISLATURES: Preliminary data gathered by the NCSL has been included in the Party Control Maps.
  • SUMMARY:
    • PRESIDENT: States changing party columns: NH: R to D; IA and NM: D to R. Result: Bush 286, Kerry 252.
    • US SENATE: A net pickup of 4 for the GOP (-2, +6). Result: 55 GOP, 44 Dem, 1 Ind.
    • US HOUSE: A net pickup of between 2-4 for the GOP (based upon preliminary overall data). Result: 231 GOP, 201 Dem, Ind 1. [2 runoffs in LA.]
    • GOVERNORS: A net pickup of 0 for the GOP (-2, +2). Result: 28 GOP, 22 Dem. [WA stayed D.]
    • LEGISLATURES: See the Party Control Project for a summary.
  • Don't forget to Vote Your Choice of Blue for Republican or Red for Democrat.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Nov 3, 2004: 2004 ELECTION RESULTS

  • Several party control maps and tables are now available, all based upon preliminary data.
  • PRESIDENT: The Electoral College Map assumes that BUSH wins OH, IA, NM and NV and that Kerry wins WI.
  • LEGISLATURES: Preliminary data gathered by the NCSL has been included in the Party Control Maps.
  • SUMMARY:
    • PRESIDENT: States changing party columns: NH: R to D; IA and NM: D to R. Result: Bush 286, Kerry 252.
    • US SENATE: A net pickup of 4 for the GOP (-2, +6). Result: 55 GOP, 44 Dem, 1 Ind. [Assumes AK and FL go GOP.]
    • US HOUSE: A net pickup of 3 for the GOP (based upon preliminary overall data). Result: 231 GOP 203, Dem 1, Ind. [3 still out.]
    • GOVERNORS: A net pickup of 1 for the GOP (-2, +3). Result: 29 GOP, 21 Dem. [Assumes WA goes GOP].
    • LEGISLATURES: See the Party Control Project for a summary.
  • Don't forget to Vote Your Choice of Blue for Republican or Red for Democrat.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Nov 1, 2004 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

  • Electoral college maps can be viewed here. There are several options:
  • An electoral college base map without any coloration as to the winner in 2000.
  • The electoral college Bush vote with the traditional Blue for Republican, Red for Democrat.
  • The electoral college Bush vote for new media favorite, Red for Republican, Blue for Democrat.
  • Vote your choice of Blue for Republican or Red for Democrat.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Oct 31, 2004 ELECTION NIGHT ONLINE RESOURCES

  • Several POLIDATA online resources for ELECTION NIGHT 2004 ONLINE RESOURCES can now be found online at our www.polidata.us site. Click on any state to see Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) versions for any the following:
  • PRESIDENT VOTE BY COUNTY, 1980 TO 2000
  • STATE ELECTION HISTORY, STATEWIDE RACES, 1982-2002
  • STATE ELECTION HISTORY, PRESIDENT, 1920-2000
  • PRESIDENT BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, 1992-2000 (in process)
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Sep 14, 2004 COUNTING OVERSEAS AMERCIANS

  • POLIDATA principal consultant, Clark Bensen, delivered comments before the House Government Reform Committee's Subcommittee on Technology, Information Policy, Intergovernmental Relations and the Census on September 14 on Capitol Hill. The full committee Chair: Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA). The subcommittee Chair: Adam Putnam (R-FL).
  • Committee website: House Government Reform Committee
  • Find the paper here: The Constitution, The Census and Overseas Americans.
  • Related comments: See the 2010 Projections below.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  July 21, 2004 INCLUDING AMERCIANS OVERSEAS IN THE CENSUS

  • POLIDATA principal consultant, Clark Bensen, delivered comments at the National Conference of State Legislaures (NCSL) Annual Meeting on July 21 in Salt Lake City. The session was entitled "Including Americans Overseas in the Census Counts for Reappportionment and Redistricting: A Special Hearing." No written comments were prepared but a subsequent paper largely mirrors these comments.
  • Related comments: The Constitution, The Census and Overseas Americans.
  • Related comments: See the 2010 Projections below.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Apr 16, 2004 REDISTRICTING SYMPOSIUM

  • POLIDATA principal consultant, Clark Bensen, was a discussant at the Competition, Partisanship, and Congressional Redistricting Symposium, sponsored by the Brookings Institution, held April 16 in Washington, DC. The paper discussed was that of Kim Brace (Election Data Services) on the Impact of Technology on the redistricting process. Other panels included Bruce Cain, Sandy Maisel, Nate Persily, Sam Hirsch, Dale Oldham and Mark Braden. The conference was chaired by Thomas Mann of Brookings.
  • Related comments: Apportionment and Fair Representation, When Equal Population Isn't Fair or Equal,
  • Related comments: See the 2010 Projections below.
  • Related comments: Reform of the Electoral College, Electoral Vote by Congressional District.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Mar 5, 2004 APPORTIONMENT AND FAIR REPRESENTATION

  • POLIDATA principal consultant, Clark Bensen, delivered comments at the Bureau of the Census Symposium, America's Scorecard, The Historic Role of the Census in an Ever-Changing Nation, held March 4-5 in Washington, DC. The paper, Apportionment and Fair Representation, When Equal Population Isn't Fair or Equal, was presented to a panel moderated by John Long of the Bureau. The panel included Prof. Allan Lichtman (American Univ.), Peter Wagner (Prison Policy Initiative), Clark Bensen (POLIDATA), and Prof. Thomas Brunell (Northern Arizona Univ.).
  • Find the paper here: Apportionment and Fair Representation, When Equal Population Isn't Fair or Equal,
  • Related comments: See the 2010 Projections below.
  • Related comments: Reform of the Electoral College, Electoral Vote by Congressional District.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Feb 22, 2004 RED STATES, BLUE STATES, THE COLOR WAR CONTINUES

  • Ever since 1980 elections, the shift of GOP states from BLUE to RED has continued throughout the media. It seems that every election brought another network on board. Now, even Republican politicos are talking in the sense of RED states being GOP states.
  • POLIDATA continues to use the age-old tradition of BLUE for REPUBLICAN, and RED for DEMOCRAT.
  • The Color War may have been lost but for the sake of clarity, couldn't we just refer to the states as REPUBLICAN STATES and DEMOCRAT STATES and leave the colors out of the shorthand discussion?
  • Find the paper here: Red State Blues, Did I Miss That Memo?
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Feb 20, 2004 2004 PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE, BUSH AHEAD IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE COUNT, 278 to 260.

  • The 2000 Presidential election was held under the apportionment from the 1990 Census. Based upon the Apportionment from the 2000 census, the count of electoral votes would change to some degree.
  • If we take the final vote as Bush 271, Gore 267 (discounting the 1 rogue Democrat elector from DC), the shift of 7 seats caused by the 2000 apportionment would make the count Bush 278, Gore, 260.
  • The effect on Bush States (BLUE STATES!) would be a +11 and -4 or +7: AZ +2; CO +1; FL +2; GA +2; IN -1; MS -1; NV +1; NC +1; OH -1; OK -1; and TX +2.
  • The effect on Gore States (RED STATES!) would be a +1 and -8, or -7: CA +1; CT -1; IL -1; MI -1; NY -2; PA -2, and WI -1.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Feb 19, 2004 APPORTIONMENT FOR 2010, BASED UPON 2003 ESTIMATES

  • The Bureau of the Census released annual estimates for states as of July 1, 2003. These have been projected by POLIDATA to 2010 for a preliminary look at a possible shift of seats based upon the 2010 census. Based upon these projections:
    • the biggest gainers are: Texas, up 3 to 35 seats; California, up 2 to 55; and Florida, up 2 to 27. The other gainers are: Nevada, up 1 to 4; Utah, up 1 to 4; Arizona, up 1 to 9; and Georgia, up 1 to 14.
    • The losing states would be New York, down 2 to 27 and Ohio, down 2 to 16. The other losers are: Massachusetts, down 1 to 9; Pennsylvania, down 1 to 18; Illinois, down 1 to 18; Minnesota, down 1 to 7; Iowa, down 1 to 4; Missouri, down 1 to 8; and Louisiana, down 1 to 6.
  • See the full press release and maps at the census portal.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Feb 11, 2004 GEORGIA REAPPORTIONMENT DECISION, Larios v. Cox (N.D., GA)

  • We have been quite busy on reapportionment matters for much of the past few years. The most recent case was the GA legislative and congressional cases, for which an opinion was issued yesterday. The opinion was a comprehensive one that relied heavily on REYNOLDS V. SIMS, 377 U.S. 533 (1964), affirming the concept that 10% overall range was a rebuttable presumption, and ROMAN V. SINCOCK, 377 U.S. 695 (1964), affirming the concept that the 10% is not a safe harbor and that whatever is done within the 10% needs to be applied consistently and for a legitimate state interest without a taint of abritrariness or discrimination. The keys here were regional/political discrimination and disparate treatment of incumbents. Both plans had an overall range of 9.98% with very high average deviations (3.47% and 3.78% in the House and Senate) which indicated that the legislature had not made a good faith effort at achieving population equality. Moreover, the impact on Republican incumbents was far more severe than that on Democrats. Nearly one half of the House and Senate caucuses were paired in the plans. The congressional case turned on whether the 72 person deviation was justified by the state. The court took a very narrow view on this and decided that the threshold for justification wasn't very high. The opinion can be found at www.gand.uscourts.gov (Larios v. Cox).
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Mar 16, 2003 NEW WEBSITE FOR PUBLICATION INFORMATION

  • We are slowly transitioning to a new web presence at www.polidata.us. Information on new publications will be found there.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

  Mar 21, 2002. WINNER-TAKE-SOME, THE NEW ELECTORAL LOCK

  • Today's op-ed column from George Will addresses the misguided proposal in some states to count the electoral votes by congressional districts. Once again, this was a topic which was discussed in detail last year following our wrap-up of the presidential votes by congressional district. In fact, a full review of this issue can still be found here, see below for more info (March 25,2001).
  • (Note: As some readers are aware, POLIDATA, while providing some of this information to the press elite, remains in the background while others get the credit. We still have our supporters who recognize our contribution to political data analysis. But, for the record, this issue was addressed in a memo available on our website and sent out to several noted persons last year in March of 2001. One of these persons included Michael Barone, once again listed as the main source by Mr. Will. Behold the power of ink!)
  • Nevertheless, the issue deserves discussion at more than just the level of federalism. On balance, the proposal appears to have more reasons CON than PRO. As one intimately involved in the districting phase of the reapportionment process, the prospect of electing our nation's leader on the basis of these districts gives one pause.
  • We have seen the decline of marginal congressional elections over the past few generations. This may just as well lock in the results of a presidential election for the decade as well. Similarly, it could do nothing but increase the influence of non-citizens on the Presidential election. In California, the ratio of votes cast in the district with the largest number of votes to the smallest number of votes was more than 3 to 1. California gets credit for as much as 5 extra congressional seats as the congressional apportionment takes into account persons, not citizens. Noncitizens, who can not register to vote, let alone enter the polling place to cast a ballot, do indirectly vote for President already. Such a method would merely transfer the "cheap seats" scenario to the Presidential election.
  • Perhaps most frightening to the prospect of avoiding a repeat of 2000 is the equally daunting prospect of recounts in congressional districts around the nation to determine who the winner of Presidential election was. One can only guess the impact of close congressional districts (there will be a few) and having the media make a wrong call on election night. The winner won't be known for weeks, if not months.
  • More importantly, if California opts for this method, (and Republicans don't control much of anything here), then nascent efforts in states controlled by the Democrats may well be the logical reaction to counteract the putative gain by Republicans.
  • Winner-Take-All may have it's flaws but, on balance, 2000 notwithstanding, it is a fairer way to assure that the will of people is not thwarted.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Dec 28, 2001. STATE POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR JULY 1, 2001.

  • The Census Bureau estimates that the national resident population has increased 3.4 million persons (1.12%) since the April 1, 2000 census.
  • National totals for Total Resident Population (50 states+DC):
    • Jul 1, 2001 Estimates: 284,796,887 (1.12% higher than Apr 1, 2000) (0.95% higher than Jul 1, 2000)
    • Jul 1, 2000 Estimates: 282,124,631 (0.25% higher than Apr 1, 2000)
    • Apr 1, 2000 Census: 281,421,906 (13% higher than Apr 1990)
  • Population Table (from the Bureau)
  • Population Shifts, Apr 2000 to Jul 2001 (POLIDATA MAP)
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Dec 28, 2001. CONGRESSIONAL APPORTIONMENT ESTIMATES FOR 2001

  • The Census Bureau has released the first post-2000 census estimates of the population for states.
  • Were these estimates used to apportion seats in the U.S. House, there would have been a handful of shifts over the actual apportionment made in December of 2000.
  • Two states would be likely losers under the new numbers:
    • IA would lose 1 seat, dropping from 5 to 4
    • OH would lose 1 seat, dropping from 18 to 17.
  • Two states would be likely gainers under the new numbers:
    • TX would gain 1 seat, increasing from 32 to 33
    • UT would gain 1 seat, increasing from 3 to 4
  • These latest estimates do not include any overseas persons, a topic which was the subject of a lawsuit by Utah which argued that some 11,000 overseas missionaries should have been included. It lost that lawsuit but based upon the new numbers it would now have over 5,500 extra persons to get a 4th seat, just a little too late.
  • Several other states were fairly close to the cutoff of the 435th seat (actually only 385 are apportioned under the formula). NC was ranked at 434, with some 22,200 persons extra. IA was ranked at 436, being short some 7,100 persons. MT was ranked at 444, being short some 22,200 persons.
  • NV and UT continued to grow at quick rates, increasing 5.25 and 3.2% respectively over the 15 month period covered by the new estimates.
  • 10 states and DC continued to lose population (though DC's loss has slowed).
  • 26 states increased at least 1.0% over the 15 months period, including NH, DE and MD.
  • Maps illustrating a theoretical apportionment are included on the site:
    • Population Shifts, 2000 to 2001
    • States Gaining/Losing Seats for 2001 Estimates
    • States near the cutoff of 435
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  May 20, 2001. GEORGE (WILL) AND RODNEY (DANGERFIELD)

  • The Washington Post Outlook section today carried a piece by columnist George Will citing data recently released by POLIDATA for the 2000 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts. (See the PRCD Project Page or the PRCD Report Page.)
  • Of course, as with the other suppliers of data to Mr. Will's research staff, no mention was made of the sources. The most logical inference from the column is that Michael Barone, the founder of the Almanac of American Politics (AAP) is the sole source. Not so.
  • The media, through Voter News Services (VNS), polling companies, and several universities, many of them funded from public coffers or large endowments, undertake the valuable surveys, both ongoing and at the polls on election day. As there are numerous sources for this information it is sometimes difficult to adequately source them.
  • The Presidential Results by Congressional District project, on the other hand, has never had more than a handful of sources and has always enjoyed an empathy with the respect problem of Rodney Dangerfield. Many media folks are cautious enough to ask questions and/or understand the complexity involved in the development of this dataset, (it took over 500 hours to compile from state and local election officials in over 400 counties). Some, apparently, can't understand why this information isn't just available immediately following the election and, of course, for free and in the public domain.
  • As a matter of fact, there has been only one study released to date which provides the district-by-district results for the 2000 Presidential election. Yes, the POLIDATA study, with the backing of a handful of sponsors (See the PRCD Project Page or the PRCD Report Page.).
  • Likewise, POLIDATA was the source of the county-by-county split for Bush to Gore (78% to 22%) in the Will piece, (see below for Dec 28,2000. but, once again, one is left to infer that the AAP is the source of this information.
  • Don't get me wrong, the AAP is an invaluable source for much of this type of information and the only other source for the Presidential Results by Congressional District other than POLIDATA and Congressional Quarterly. However, the source for the information used by Mr. Will was not the AAP but POLIDATA.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.

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  Mar 25, 2001. THIS JUST IN, NIXON BEATS KENNEDY...ELECTORAL VOTES BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS (EVCD)

  • The Washington Post Outlook section today carried a piece by political analyst Rhodes Cook using the data recently released by POLIDATA for the 2000 Presidential Results by Congressional Districts. (See the PRCD Project Page or the PRCD Report Page.)
  • For those readers intrigued with this modified plan for the Electoral College, we offer the following thoughts on the application of such a district-based plan.
  • Bear in mind that the primary motivation is presumably to reduce the disparity between the winner's percentage of the popular vote and the percentage of the Electoral College.
  • Ironically, such a modified method would have had the opposite effect in 2000, the only election of the 13 studied that would have INCREASED the disparity.
  • Also, under such a universally applied method, Bush would have won the Presidency even without winning Florida. The loss of Florida would have been only a loss of -2 for the statewide electoral votes as the 13 Bush CDs would have been added to the Bush column under this method. A Florida loss would have reduced the modified vote from an estimated 288-250 to 286-252. Bush would have lost nationally under the modified plan only by losing 17 more CDs or 9 more states or some combination thereof. The battle would have expanded to the 15 states which had Presidential contests decided by less than 2% of the vote.
  • Note also that any analysis of a district-based plan applies it retroactively and assumes it would have been applied uniformly, i.e., nationally. Of course, in several states were the most district votes would be gained by either party, it is not likely that party in control of the legislature would adopt a plan that would disadvantage their presidential nominee.
  • Pro:
    1. An improvement in the proportionality between the popular vote and the electoral vote. (Generally true, but NOT in 2000.)
    2. An improvement with a preservation of the importance of the federal scheme of government in the American Republic, i.e., small state vis-à-vis large state, compared to an outright abolition of the Electoral College.
    3. A change in the campaign operation of any presidential campaign with a focus on grassroots organization versus mass media (perhaps).
    4. Increased interest on the part of voters in states that would not otherwise be contested at the state level, e.g., states that consistently vote one way for President but have districts that vote the opposite.
    5. It could encourage the more equal distribution of every citizen's vote if votes were equalized across district. On the other hand, it could increase the gerrymandering of districts to assure the presidential vote.
    6. Would encourage the elimination of the "faithless elector".
    7. Can be accomplished without an amendment to the federal Constitution.
  • Con:
    1. Could perpetuate the "rotten borough" problem due to the current jurisprudential focus on equality of population without regard to the distribution of voters amongst districts. In 2000, 50% of the members of the U.S. House in the districts with the fewest number of votes in the presidential election represented only 42% of the votes cast in the presidential election.
    2. Would exacerbate the unequal voting weight that occurs over the decade by population shifts by locking-in voters in fast-growing suburban districts.
    3. Could fall into the same legal problems that the 'unit system' did in the South before the Civil Rights Era.
    4. Could complicate the election process of determining the winner even in races that aren't very close on a national level.
    5. Whereas many congressional contests are not close, many results for President in districts are close. Even assuming split precincts are eliminated (which they must be), recounts in more districts would be inevitable. Over a dozen districts in 2000 were decided by less than 1% for President.
    6. The existence of split precincts and centrally counted absentee, or early, ballots would require local election officials to a) revise their precinct boundaries to avoid precincts split by a congressional boundary line and b) tally all absentee votes back to precincts (both good reforms). The presence of split precincts and centrally counted absentees could require more time than is available on election night to local officials. Much advance planning would be required to facilitate appropriate designation of all votes to districts and quick aggregation.
  • Pro or Con?
    1. It would greatly lessen the impact large states have on the political process as blocs of winner-take-all units.
    2. It would greatly increase the importance of minor parties on elections in close, swing districts.
    3. The use of districts for the Electoral College would fundamentally alter the redistricting phase of the apportionment process.
  • POLIDATA Home Page.
  The Electoral Vote by Congressional District analysis can be found here, summarizing the elections from 1952 to 2000, or send an email request to info@polidata.org.

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  Mar 17, 2001. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, Preliminary Summary (PRCD)
  The first data from this months-long study are now available from Polidata. The project was undertaken with the support of the RNC, the NRCC and the Cook Political Report. For further information, see the PRCD Project Page or the PRCD Report Page.

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  Mar 06, 2001. UNADJUSTED NUMBERS ARE THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS
  Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans has accepted the recommendation of the Bureau of the Census, (see ESCAP report below), and decided that the official data released for the purposes of apportionment will be the unadjusted counts from the enumeration. The first states are to be released this week.
  Also, in a related evelopment, the Bureau has established a new web page for redistricting information. See the Redistricting Data Program page.

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  Mar 02, 2001. ESCAP REPORT A preliminary review of some of the material in the ESCAP report produces the following items:

  • The ESCAP concluded that while both the Census and the A.C.E. were of high quality, it noted an "inconsistency between the demographic analysis estimates [annual estimates based upon administrative records] and the A.C.E. estimates" which prevented it from concluding "that adjustment would improve accuracy."
  • "The primary reason for arriving at this conclusion is the apparent inconsistency in population growth over the decade as estimated by the A.C.E. and demographic analysis." As we noted upon release of the apportionment numbers in December of 2000, the total population for the nation (281.4 million) was considerably higher than any projections based upon Bureau estimates released annually throughout the decade.
  • The estimated net undercount nationally was 1.18%, compared to the 1.59% for 1990, and it was reduced over the estimate for 1990 for almost all population subgroups. Groups with the highest net undercount rate continue to be a) American Indians (4.74% on, 3.25% off reservations); b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders (4.60%); c) Hispanics (2.85%); d) Blacks (2.17%); e) Asians (0.96%); f) Whites (0.67%).
  • The breakout of the net undercount rate by age groups remained about the same as 1990 with 18-29 being the group with the largest undercount. The estimated undercount rate for children was cut in half, from 3.18% in 1990 to 1.54%.
  • The only real increase in the net undercount rate by subgroup was for homeowners, which went from 0.04% in 1990 to 0.44% in 2000. The rate for renters was substantially reduced from 4.51% in 1990 to 2.75% in 2000.
  • The report also addressed distributive accuracy, concluding that "smaller counties would have been less accurate".
  • The report also reiterated its reversal of its longstanding belief on the quality of block-level data in the accuracy evaluation and focused on the non-random aggregation of congressional districts as a valid unit of measure. If this was a report designed to evaluate the data for use in redistricting, the block level was the key. Blocks are the lowest common denominator for redistricting.
  • The report also took another opportunity to disavow any notion that census questionnaires would be deleted in any adjustment. Rather, "the downward adjustment [adjusting for overcounting] is accomplished by creating statistical records with negative weights..".
  • Likewise, the report relayed the direction under which it worked pursuant to a Commerce Dept opinion that the Supreme Court ruling in January 1999 required the Bureau to "produce statistically corrected numbers ... for all non-apportionment purposes." The key phrase here is "apportionment purposes". From a jurisprudential perspective, redistricting is an apportionment purpose; therefore, the ruling would have barred the use of these data anyway.

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  Mar 01, 2001. ADJUSTMENT DECISION

  • The Bureau of the Census, charged with reviewing the data gathered from the post-enumeration survey of households (the A.C.E.), has decided to NOT recommend that the adjusted data be used for the districting phase of the apportionment process. This means that the Bureau recommends "that unadjusted census data be released as the Census Bureau's official redistricting data."
  • The internal review board, the Executive Steering Committee for Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Policy (ESCAP), reviewed a wide variety of evidence.
  • The ESCAP committee concluded that "demographic analysis comparisons, and possible issues related to synthetic and balancing error, preclude a determination at this time that the adjusted data are more accurate."
  • Following the recommendation of the ESCAP, the Acting Director of the Bureau, William Barron, supported the report and recommended to Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans that "unadjusted data be released as the Census Bureau's official redistricting data."
  • You can find the report and supporting materials at the census website.

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  Jan 05, 2001. APPORTIONMENT AND ADJUSTMENT Today's article in the Washington Post about the Evans confirmation includes a statement attributed to Senator John McCain (R-AZ) that adjustment would have shifted a seat to Arizona.

  1. The one thing that was agreed upon by all sides in the GLAVIN v. CLINTON case (Jan. 1999), was that adjustment could not be used "for apportionment purposes". This means, at least, that the numbers used for the apportionment last week were not to be adjusted.
  2. Senator McCain is partially correct. Had the 1990 apportionment been adjusted by the Post-Enumeration Survey estimated rates of undercount, as they were released in July 1991, AZ would have picked up a seat. This adjustment would have shifted two seats, from PA and WI to CA and AZ.
  3. The 1990 PES estimated rates of undercount were revised in 1992, substantially reducing the estimate of the undercount, nationally from 2.1% to 1.6%. Had the 1990 apportionment been adjusted by the 1992 Revised PES rates, AZ would not have picked up a seat. The shift would have been only one seat, from WI to CA.
  4. If adjustment were to be applied to the 2000 Census Apportionment counts, the shift would have been one seat, from OH (making it -2) to TX (making it +3).

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  Jan. 02, 2001. REDISTRICTING CONTROL MAPS
  Our Data & Maps Group now includes Redistricting Control Maps for the initial responsibility for the drawing of boundaries for Congress and the State Legislatures.
  Note: these maps only reflect the initial responsibility and are to be used as a guideline only. For more detailed information, contact each state (see our state links page) or the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) via email: tim.storey@ncsl.org and inquire about their fine 3-volume set of Redistricting Manuals (the Red Book, the Blue Book, and the Yellow Book).

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  Jan. 01, 2001. PARTY CONTROL MAPS
  Our Data & Maps Group now includes Party Control Maps for the post-2000-election party control of Governors and State Legislatures, and Races Up in 2002. The Projects Group now includes a Party Control listing.

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  Dec 29, 2000. APPORTIONMENT FACTOIDS
  These have been moved to a new separate page for eaiser printing and reference.

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  Dec 29, 2000. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TOTALS FOR 2000 CENSUS.

  • Total Resident Population (50 states+DC) 281,421,906 (13% higher than 1990)
  • Total Overseas Population (50 states+DC) 576,367 (37% lower than 1990)
  • Total Apportionment Population (50 states only) 281,424,177 (13% higher than 1990)
  • Total Population (50 states+DC+Puerto Rico): 285,230,516
  • Northeast: 53,594,378 (+5.5%)
  • Midwest: 64,392,776 (+7.9%)
  • South: 100,236,820 (+17.3%)
  • West: 63,197,932 (+19.7%)
  • Puerto Rico: 3,808,610 (+8.1%)

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  Dec 28, 2000. APPORTIONMENT OF THE U.S. HOUSE, FOR THE 108TH-112TH CONGRESSES.
  These have been moved to a new separate page for eaiser printing and reference.

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  Dec 28, 2000. PRESIDENT BY COUNTY
  As a follow-up to the Presidential Election.

  States won by Bush:	30	1999 Pop: 135,587,324 (49.7%)	2000 Res Pop: 140,626,203 (49.99%)	2000 App Pop: 140,966,678 (49.99%)
  States won by Gore:	21	1999 Pop: 137,103,489 (50.3%)	2000 Res Pop: 140,795,703 (50.01%)	2000 App Pop: 141,031,595 (50.01%)
  Counties won by Bush:	2,480	1999 Population:	144,887,369 (53.1%)
  Counties won by Gore:	674	1999 Population:	127,803,386 (46.9%)
  CDs won by Bush:		in progress
  CDs won by Gore:		in progress

  
  Notes: 1. App. Pop. above includes the resident population plus overseas population and includes DC in the calculations.
  2. While we are still in the process of compiling the results for all 435 Congressional Districts, it is clear the Bush won more Democrat seats (mostly in the Ohio River Basin and the South) than Gore won Republican seats (mostly in the Northeast). More information on this project can be found at our PRCD portal.

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  Dec 24, 2000. PAYPAL PAYMENTS
  We have started using PAYPAL for online payments. How does a buyer purchase an item from the Web Accept button on my website? When a buyer wishes to purchase your item, he or she will click on the Web Accept button and be directed to enter their credit card, shipping information, and email address. Once they have submitted this information, you will be sent an email informing you of the purchase with the buyer's email address and shipping information, and your PayPal account will be credited with the total amount of the purchase minus transaction fees. The buyer will then be sent back to the link you have specified that they return to. During the purchase process, the buyer is not directed into the PayPal site.

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  Dec 21, 2000. OFFICIAL COUNTY-LEVEL RESULTS DATABASE
  We have now finished the collection and processing phase of the 2000 Presidential race for all 3,140 county equivalents in the nation. This was generally made easier by the internet but the typical problems still were evident: a few states didn't provide much on their websites and, of course, New England continues to focus on town-level data. We have aggregated up to the counties for these cases and continue to use the legislative district for Alaska. The database will include the 1996 results as well, one record per county, delivered via email in a .zip file which includes several formats (.dbf database format, .csv comma separated value, or .sdf system default format, i.e., fixed field width). Any format should be easily opened in FoxPro, Excel or Access. Cost for the database is $175 via email, add for shipping and/or sales tax to VA addresses. If you want both the database and the Volume I book on CDROM, the price is only $225.00 plus shipping and/or tax.

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  Dec 8, 2000. APPORTIONMENT AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
  If the apportionment to be implemented as a result of the 2000 census were in force for the 2000 Presidential election, (as it currently stands with Bush as the certified winner of FL), the results would be a net gain of 6 votes for Bush. If it is now Bush 271, Gore 267; it would be Bush 277, Gore 261. This shift of 6 seats would increase Bush's lead from 4 electoral votes to 16.

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  Dec 7, 2000. PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
  Review the new PRCD Portal, for updates on the status of this months-long effort to compile the results of the Presidential election for all 435 congressional districts of the 107th congress.

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  Nov 26, 2000. ELECTION MAPS for PRESIDENT, 1952 to 2000 NOW AVAILABLE
  Review the Maps Available, viewable here as .gif files. These will be updated as final numbers are collected.

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  Nov 21, 2000. ELECTION RESULTS for 2000 PRESIDENT
  STATES AND COUNTIES, Vol. 1, NOW AVAILABLE ON CDROM
  We have converted the web-based results into our normal database format and generated a CDROM version of Volume 1 of our PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2000 SET. ORDER IT TODAY FOR $225 AND GET A FREE FINAL COPY IN THE SPRING. It includes Part 1-STATE MAPS & LISTINGS, Part 2-COUNTY MAPS & LISTINGS, Part 3-STATE MINI-REPORTS. Review the Table of Contents here as a .pdf file. These are preliminary data based upon election night data from the news services, use with caution!

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  Nov 10, 2000. ELECTION RESULTS for 2000 PRESIDENT
  We are beginning to convert the web-based results into our normal database format. Until we get the final votes from the states, the listings and maps will be available here in .pdf format. See the www.polidata.org/en2000. These are preliminary data based upon election night data from the news services, use with caution!

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  Sep. 1, 2000. NEW BINDING FORMAT
  We are pleased to now offer all new volumes in a BOUND FORMAT. This format, called LIBRARY BINDING, is specifically designed for library use. It is a glue-based hard case which allows pages to lie flat and allows for easy copying of pages. See the Binders page for more info.

  Oct 13, 2000. ELECTION ANALYSIS for VERMONT
  A new study of election analysis in my home state of Vermont. For those who don't know, I started POLIDATA as VERMONT POLIDATA in 1974. Election analysis for Vermont Elections has been a standby interest of mine since the days of the Vermont Elections Project at the University of Vermont with Prof. Garrision Nelson and Prof. Frank Bryan. Since moving to Washington in 1981 much of my focus has been on other states. See the Acrobat .pdf file (560k, includes map). This was the subject of an AP story in the VT papers Sunday, November 5, 2000.

  Aug 23, 2000. ELECTION HISTORY VOLUMES
  Several new additions to our series of county and county region election reports. See the State page for more info in specific volumes.

  Aug 9, 2000. CAMPAIGN FINANCE LITIGTAION
  The Federal District Court for Vermont invalidated portions of the Vermont Campaign Finance Law relying upon Buckley v. Valeo. Governor Howard Dean (D) declared his intention to forego the public financing to spend as much as it takes to win his reelection against both a well-funded Republican and an independent candidate who is receiving public financing.

  Jun 16, 2000. 2ND CIRCUIT CASE DEALS WITH CAMPAIGN FINANCE & EXPRESS ADVOCACY
  In an appeal from District Court, (Vermont Right to Life Committee v. Sorrell, No. 98-9325) the 2nd Circuit ruled a portion of the Vermont Campaign Finance Law, as amended in 1997, unconstitutional as reaching non-express advocacy under Buckley v. Valeo, 424 U.S. 1 (1976) holding three sections of the law "facially invalid under the First Amendment." The case was remanded to address the issue of severability on this state law.
  

  Spring 2000. COUNTING ON THE CENSUS?
  Peter Skerry, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and author of the award-winning MEXICAN AMERICANS (1995), has a new book published about the 2000 Census. The book focuses on the Clinton Administration's proposal for the adjustment of the census to "account" for all Americans. It is a very readable 202 pages (with 50 pages of notes) hitting nearly every angle of the issue from both the side of the proponents and the opponents. As for Skerry's perspective, he is no fan of adjustment but believes that the focus on adjustment leaves more important concerns unaddressed. A review and some highlights is included on our site. You can order the book online from Barnes & Noble (ISBN 081577964X).
  

  Spring 2000. PRESIDENTIAL PROGNOSIS
  Charlie Cook has a new home page. Read his analysis of "the most exciting election year we've seen in decades". Visit the COOK POLITICAL REPORT
  

  March 2000. PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY NEWS
  Check out the latest on the primary scene and other interesting activities of the ongoing election season. Get a different slant than you hear on the TV and radio. Get real information from RHODES COOK at his new website. Rhodes has been a political commentator with Congressional Quarterly for years and is now the editor of America Votes, the unofficial book of record for elections for President, Congress and Governor. See www.rhodescook.com
  

  Jan. 8, 2000. APPORTIONMENT IN 2000, NATIONAL SUMMARY
  The latest installment in our annual publication sumamrizing apportionment based upon annual estimates for 1999. The volume provides a state-by-state analysis of growth patterns and apportionment factors for both the Congressional and State Legislative apportionment processes. See www.polidata.org/census/apa99dl.htm
  

  Jan. 6, 2000. NEW WEB PAGE FOR CENSUS ITEMS.
  We are contructing a new portal for Census related items. See www.polidata.org/census
  

  Jan, 5, 2000. C-SPAN APPORTIONMENT SHOW
  C-SPAN aired a show about the latest apportionment projections. Guests were Clark Bensen of Polidata and Kim Brace of Election Data Services, the two major private consultants who analyse these data annually (at least). See www.polidata.org/census/wpr9l28z.pdf for the release itself. See www.polidata.org/census/app9ldl.htm for related items. C-SPAN has video tapes for sale also, at C-SPAN.org.
  

  Dec 29, 1999. BUREAU RELEASES 1999 POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR STATES-APPORTIONTMENT STUDY
  The Bureau has released it latest series of state-level population estimates as of July 1, 1999. Polidata has projected these estimates out nine-months to April 1,2000 for an analysis of the initial allocation of seats in the U.S. House. This will be the last set of data from the Bureau before the President receives the official tally from the 2000 Census by the end of December 2000. See www.polidata.org/census/wpr9l28z.pdf for the release itself. See www.polidata.org/census/app9ldl.htm for related items.
  

  Oct 26, 1999. BUREAU TO RELEASE TWO SETS OF REDISTRICTING DATA
  The Census Bureau has firmed up its plans to release two sets of numbers at the block level. The General Counsel of the Department of Commerce, in a letter dated Oct. 8, 1999, responded to a request from the Chairman of the Congressional Subcommittee on the Census, Rep. Dan Miller, from May 13, 1999. The Bureau is planning on a release of the adjusted data as the official data released under PL94-171 for legislative apportionment. The Bureau will also release the unadjusted enumeration data as part of the congressional mandate from PL105-119. See www.polidata.org/census/doc9j08.pdf for the Congressional request and Executive response. See www.polidata.org/census/wpr9j26a.pdf for a review of the letter.
  

  Oct 1, 1999. CENSUS MONITORING BOARD REPORTS
  The Congressional side of the Census Monitoring Board has issued it's report to Congress. (Find it here at www.cmbc.gov.) Their report analyzes several of the 'myths' surrounding the census methodology. Basic conclusion? That the sampling methodology will not solve the undercount at the local level. That is, blocks which are estimated to be heavily undercounted will still be undercounted when adjustment is all completed.
  "Statistical adjustment will not correct large undercounts or overcounts in small areas such as blocks and neighborhoods." The Presidential side has issued a report as well though rumors of a virus on the site persist so, hold off for the moment and check back in at www.cmbp.gov.

  Jul 8, 1999. NEW VOLUMES ADDED TO ELECTION YEARBOOK SERIES.
  The latest addition to this series are the ELECTION YEARBOOKS. First out are the versions for NEW YORK, VERMONT, TENNESSEE and ILLINOIS. Sample pages are not yet ready but a summary of the contents can be found at wfxeycny.pdf.

  Jul 8, 1999. REGISTRATION and TURNOUT SUMMARY
  Included in the YEARBOOKS is some summary information for Registration & Turnout in 1998. State-level summary pages can be found here at us98vst.pdf. and a brief national summary at tdsum98.pdf. These are based upon our own collection of information from the states and may differ from the recent material from the FEC.

  Jun 4, 1999. NEW VOLUMES ADDED TO ELECTION YEARBOOK SERIES.
  Following the 1996 elections we spent so much time compiling the Presidential Vote by Congressional District that our ELECTION HISTORY reports fell by the wayside. We are now working on these volumes for the 1998 elections. First out of the box, ELECTION HISTORY FOR TENNESSEE, COUNTIES AND MEDIA MARKETS, 1999-2000 Edition. Also available shortly, the same for SOUTH CAROLINA, MAINE, and NEVADA.
  For more information on these volumes, which contain separate MINI-REPORTS for election races since c. 1984 AND for every county, see www.polidata.org/states for sample pages.
  ALSO, THESE VOLUMES WILL BE NOW BE AVAILABLE ON CD-ROM AS WELL.

  May 3, 1999. NEW VOLUMES ADDED TO DEMOGRAPHIC ATLAS SERIES.
  With several additions to our DEMOGRAPHIC ATLAS volumes, there are now 25 states covered by this type of volume. For more information on these volumes, which contain a separate 8 page MINI-REPORT for every county, see www.polidata.org/states for sample pages. The companion DEMOGRAPHIC GUIDE volumes, now available for about 12 states, will be forthcoming over this year.

  Mar 31, 1999. POPULATION ESTIMATES, 1998, NOW AVAILABLE.
  With the annual estimates of total population released from the Bureau, our annual publication, Population Estimates, 1998, States and Counties, is now available. Sample pages. Order it today, ISBN 1-57708-613-9, 596pp. $98.00, now includes binder.

  Mar 15, 1999. POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 2000
  With the state-level annual estimates of total population released from the Bureau, we have projected the April 1, 2000 population for all states for the initial allocation of Congressional seats among states. If you haven't received a copy, fax a request to 703-494-4061.

  Mar 2, 1999. Census Bureau Director Prewitt Appears Before House Subcommittee on Census
  The Director understands the Framer's intent and political manipulation, states that the 4000 lines of code for the Master Activity Document will be finished in two weeks, and that the total population for the nation will be completed by Dec 31, 2000 for delivery to the President. Amicus Brief written by Mark Braden and Clark Bensen (80k .pdf).

  Feb 24, 1999. Census Bureau Director Prewitt to Make Major Announcement on Plans for Census 2000 Census Links

  Jan 28, 1999. Redistricting is an Apportionment Purpose-The Census Case The Census Sampling Case.

  Jan 27, 1999. 2000 Census-Apportionment (Same numbers with revised text after S.Ct. Opinion) Apportionment Based upon POLIDATA 2000 Projections.

  Jan 25, 1999. 2000 Census-U.S. SUPREME COURT Rejects Clinton Proposal for Statistical Sampling. The Court upheld Title 13 section 195 of the U.S. Code by holding that the Clinton plan to "account" for, rather than counting, the U.S. Population could not be accomplished by the means of sampling. Entire Opinion at Cornell site. Amicus Brief written by Mark Braden and Clark Bensen (80k .pdf).

  Jan 21, 1999. 2000 Census-Apportionment based upon 2000 Projections An analysis of likely shifts in Congress based upon projections for 2000 by POLIDATA. Apportionment Based upon POLIDATA 2000 Projections.

  Dec 31, 1998. 2000 Census-Apportionment based upon 1998 Estimates An analysis of likely shifts in Congress based upon latest Bureau estimatesApportionment Based upon the 1998 Population Estimates.

  Sep 25, 1998. 2000 Census-ANOTHER U.S. Court Rejects Clinton Proposal for Statistical Sampling. See opinion and related papers at Apportionment Based upon the 1997 Population Estimates.

  Aug 25, 1998. 2000 Census-U.S. Court Rejects Clinton Proposal for Statistical Sampling. See opinion and related papers at Apportionment Based upon the 1997 Population Estimates.

  Nov.11, 1997. We're back. After experiencing a hard disk crash on our local server we have finally been able to regain access to our own website. We are still experiencing a few problems, notably, that the terms "CompanyLongName" etc. still show up on some browsers. Please go to the CONTACTS page for the appropriate information notwithstanding this inconvenience.

  Jul 8, 1997. New ship date for Presidential Election, 1996, Districts of the 105th Congress, Vol. 2.

  Jun 30, 1997. Vacation over. Upon our return we noticed that certain predefined terms in our Microsoft FrontPage website software were mysteriously left in their generic forms, e.g., CompanyLongName for Polidata Data Analysis & Demographic Guides. Contact info: email: info@polidata.org; tel: 703-690-4066; fax: 703-494-4061. Sorry for the inconvenience.

  Jun 9, 1997. Census Adjustment-Sampling Basics. A brief summary of basics involving the concept of sampling as currently used by the Bureau of the Census.

  May 29, 1997. Census Adjustment Review; Census Sampling and Estimation; 1995 Test Census. Data reviews for census issues. Census Sampling and Estimation paper presented to Census 2000 Advisory Panel, September 1996. See the Library-Demographics Page for pages in these papers.

  May 27, 1997. Results of the Nov.5th 1996 election by County. These data, collected from state election authorities, are basic data listings for the raw data used in our publications. See the Library-Elections Page for both a national map and state-by-state listings. Order the complete results with ranking and state maps from Polidata. See Presidential Election, 1996, States and Counties, Vol 1.

  May 22, 1997. Results of the Nov.5th 1996 election by Congressional Districts of the 105th Congress. These data, compiled with the assistance of Congressional Quarterly of Washington, are now available. See the Library-Elections Page for both a national map and state-by-state listings. Check the CQ WEEKLY REPORT for analysis. Order the complete results with ranking and state maps from Polidata. See Presidential Election, 1996, Districts of the 105th Congress, Vol 2.

  May 22, 1997. The first version of this web was published during May 1997. The primary initial effort has been made to provide basic information on the company, POLIDATA, and the publications division, Demographic and Political Guides. Expanded coverage of our services division, Political Data Analysis will be forthcoming. Soon thereafter work will begin on the development of the On-Line Library, which will contain demographic profiles, election results and occasional papers and analytical notes.

• POLIDATA Home Page.

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  HOME: www.polidata.org. THIS: http://www.polidata.org/news.htm updated: 2008-dec-23